Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Creighton vs. St. John's
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf48b2b021a519f0ad520a4901be0eb6ecd1b5594bc2baf2eb8eeaaad0383147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John'sof Creighton, St. John's
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked St. John's | 75c | 24,518$18,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,018.32 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Creighton | 25c | 11,999$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.04 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Creighton | 30c | 8,171$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.1 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Creighton | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed St. John's | 73c | 2,621$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.44 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed St. John's | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Creighton | 27c | 2,386$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.3 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Creighton | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed St. John's | 73c | 1,835$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Creighton | 24c | 1,700$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Creighton | 25c | 1,298$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.47 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed St. John's | 70c | 1,006$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.72 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Creighton | 26c | 843.16$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed St. John's | 55c | 772.42$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.71 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Creighton | 45c | 417.85$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked St. John's | 77c | 395.36$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Creighton | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Creighton | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Creighton | 23c | 140.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…b757backed St. John's | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Creighton | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Creighton | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Creighton | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75a…8e0fbacked Creighton | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Creighton | 27c | 48.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Creighton | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Creighton | 25c | 42.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Creighton | 26c | 41.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Creighton | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5d…47d0backed St. John's | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed St. John's | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…82f5backed St. John's | 67c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.