Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf499b3218dd728700e33f2a33f972fecb5c70e99c3a83dd0bccc46d22e3c441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 3,560$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 72c | 1,608$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.18 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9136backed No | 1c | 1,397$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 939$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 712.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 2c | 655.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 50c | 512.86$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.03 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 3c | 469.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 16c | 363.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.86 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 358$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 6c | 324.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.79 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 310.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 50c | 306$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 7c | 281.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 9c | 222.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 10c | 209.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 16c | 170.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 14c | 145.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 43c | 143.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 139.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 110.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 41c | 70.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 48c | 66.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 61c | 66.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 57.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 51.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 41.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 77c | 39.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed Yes | 66c | 38.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 45c | 37.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 33.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked Yes | 43c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…87f6backed Yes | 71c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.