Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e3288a9d5caf921549e17e06b27b61800f9f7b47868d1aa7424b30b279d06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,228 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 3,180$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 75c | 951.55$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.51 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 588.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 510.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 358$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 302.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 15c | 260.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 231$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 15c | 230.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 69c | 213.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 169.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 33c | 135.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 129.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 125.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 65c | 115.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a9…13d5backed Yes | 36c | 113$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 23c | 102.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 100.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 79c | 91.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 90.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 77c | 88.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 34c | 85.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 79.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 64c | 70.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 37c | 68.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 36c | 56.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 46.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 26c | 44.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b70…5d1fbacked No | 65c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 39.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…4155backed No | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…63d5backed No | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 75c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 24.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 79c | 22.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…b2febacked No | 75c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 70c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.