Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41440a76bfdd349cc310216698117f9ffe50d81a782ce6eb1256559e690fc635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 5,950$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 56c | 1,146$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.27 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 64c | 746.61$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 502.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 45c | 392.49$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.06 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes | 44c | 382.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 358$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 348.57$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 274.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 70c | 271.61$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.57 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 41c | 239.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 214.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 21c | 196.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 56c | 179.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 165.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 35c | 163.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…4890backed Yes | 59c | 159.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 158.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 155.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 14c | 153.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 151.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 41c | 150.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 33c | 147.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 51c | 142.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 40c | 124.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 54c | 112.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 108.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 16c | 105.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 49c | 102.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0b97backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…e7e8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 66c | 90.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 70c | 86.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4e…1d66backed Yes | 58c | 85.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 57c | 85.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 44c | 84.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 81.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 78.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 35c | 77.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 71c | 70.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 62c | 70.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…e024backed Yes | 58c | 68.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 24c | 63.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 59c | 60.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 33c | 59.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 37c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 55c | 53.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 59c | 53.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…ce1dbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 40c | 49.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 44c | 49.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 61c | 47.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 46c | 43.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked Yes | 59c | 42.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 32c | 41.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 51c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…abe1backed Yes | 42c | 38.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 37c | 36.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 36.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7222…d58fbacked Yes | 52c | 36.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 44c | 34.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 60c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed Yes | 60c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 67c | 33.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…dda4backed Yes | 44c | 31.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Yes | 60c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 78c | 28.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…9617backed No | 42c | 27.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…3b8dbacked No | 42c | 27.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 56c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 47c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…5990backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 44c | 23.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 23.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.