Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5e15efe808bf29c036fefbc3dd06e3596a17a7aa69df1ebeafdf27b7f68fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Ajaxof AFC Ajax, FK Vojvodina Novi Sad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 27c | 1,347$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.84 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 38c | 1,316$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.2 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 1,157$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.56 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked AFC Ajax | 65c | 558.86$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed AFC Ajax | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 34c | 299.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked AFC Ajax | 65c | 290.66$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 10c | 182.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 49c | 144$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 128$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 36c | 110.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed AFC Ajax | 67c | 107.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 65c | 100.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AFC Ajax | 66c | 89.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 47c | 86.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax | 68c | 84.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed AFC Ajax | 66c | 57.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked AFC Ajax | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…8821backed AFC Ajax | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed AFC Ajax | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed AFC Ajax | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 4.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.