Europa Conference League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x049e63be47bfc8a0b67907ab52085c9ebaf961d7f87f5b2638a3a7f8b22412e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 2,253$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.21 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,178$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 748.82$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.87 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 50c | 378.24$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.85 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 28c | 258.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 80c | 206$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 142.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 128$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 38c | 101.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 47c | 96.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 88.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 24c | 77.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 62.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 36.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 70c | 33.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Over | 40c | 27.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 69c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 4.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: AFC Ajax O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.