Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf617550c2a5b07747213fb2f456056cf7d5bc6d9dfe4ec8baf3dec83455ac04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoki Nakagawaof Renta Tokuda, Naoki Nakagawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Renta Tokuda | 1c | 8,800$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +209.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Renta Tokuda | 1c | 4,854$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Renta Tokuda | 30c | 327.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Naoki Nakagawa | 35c | 274.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Renta Tokuda | 38c | 234.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Renta Tokuda | 38c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Renta Tokuda | 25c | 120.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Renta Tokuda | 16c | 114.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 58c | 100.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Renta Tokuda | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Renta Tokuda | 65c | 99.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Renta Tokuda | 14c | 96.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 69c | 87.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 128 | 63.3%81 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Renta Tokuda | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Renta Tokuda | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Renta Tokuda | 62c | 38.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Renta Tokuda | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Naoki Nakagawa | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.