MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf7327b7129afee2f6367ba03cd205b7f4c9bab8867e2cd66d75c96833669ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 20,837$7,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,501.2 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 18,835$12,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,802.4 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 8,000$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 7,075$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 5,110$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.46 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 3,760$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 2,315$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.83 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Seattle Mariners | 1c | 2,137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,861$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.39 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 1,686$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 1,400$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,229$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.83 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,013$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.81 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…d079backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 720.61$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 247$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 217.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…ce7fbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 211.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 132.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…d5edbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…1808backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 80.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 79.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jays vs. MarinersBlue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.