MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f4c0cb54736104d7e54c8ea9b760d5eb954ec1258b2a45904b9dad1994e9d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 56c | 50,661$28,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,476.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 45c | 30,700$13,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,020.23 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 43c | 27,777$11,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,832.89 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 55c | 9,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.98 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Under | 55c | 8,537$4,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,695.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 5,580$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 44c | 4,507$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.42 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 56c | 4,304$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.39 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 53c | 3,798$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.13 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 45c | 3,637$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.35 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 3,244$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.4 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…a42cbacked Over | 43c | 3,091$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 57c | 2,555$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.35 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,466$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.24 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 2,235$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.61 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,064$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.45 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 56c | 819.76$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.06 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 57c | 527$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Over | 42c | 470.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.65 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 44c | 433$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 56c | 348.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 304$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 56c | 283.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 49c | 221.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…41cebacked Over | 44c | 198$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed Over | 45c | 175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Over | 43c | 162.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 68c | 151.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Over | 45c | 144.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…c533backed Over | 45c | 141.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…824bbacked Over | 47c | 123.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Under | 56c | 120.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Over | 43c | 98.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Over | 45c | 93.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba1b…82fdbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Over | 43c | 82.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Over | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 45c | 69.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…7f61backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Under | 33c | 45.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…118fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c0…93fdbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed Under | 57c | 32.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Over | 43c | 31.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…bf7abacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 192 | 42.2%81 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. MarinersBlue Jays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.