Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf75afed3294b63bffb8b6f5d20503a174446218c17c656afc0db7678449dfce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 421.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 18c | 415.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +24.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 397.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked Yes | 19c | 389.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 329.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 9c | 326.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 184.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 22c | 180.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 7c | 166.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 32c | 156.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 153.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 147.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 141$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 10c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 15c | 138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 21c | 134.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 9c | 129.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 128.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 24c | 115$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 17c | 113.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 18c | 107.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 101.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 18c | 94.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 26c | 89.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 77.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 17c | 73.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 70.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 66.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked Yes | 17c | 59.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 207 | 36.7%76 W · 131 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 45.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 45.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 35.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 79c | 26.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…86f1backed No | 76c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 72c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 78c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.