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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes23c1,330$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1413127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes20c1,272$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9817224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes29c1,249$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.262839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…427cbacked No79c580$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.254868.8%33 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No61c570$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22016669.9%116 W · 50 L+24.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes22c508.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.89712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6b…3a4cbacked No67c423.56$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c392$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes47c300$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14241927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No79c289.05$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.748,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4550…0f28backed No56c265.82$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.821741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick61cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c262$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.753,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No77c259.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4982742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a0…928ebacked Yes46c241.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes69c218.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504052.5%21 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No80c218.05$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6689259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed No60c206.37$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.611527.8%32 W · 83 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes24c203.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.561,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3057744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes31c193.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6461421.8%134 W · 480 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c187.19$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.94,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes31c185.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.222222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes41c184.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7518145.3%82 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c176$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.492,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes12c173.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.119652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No70c156.47$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9435283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.213778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc5…c74abacked No74c134.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.94862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No75c133.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3318947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes14c130$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.58236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c125.89$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.442,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c122.67$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8812,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c120.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.677,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.836,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No63c112.24$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.391,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes26c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1249951.7%258 W · 241 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No78c100.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.748956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3262539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No46c96.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4813861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes23c93.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.554738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes23c87.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6610033%33 W · 67 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9302…901fbacked Yes23c86.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes28c86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.943426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes21c85.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c84.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4312,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No78c82.14$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.221,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes31c82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3885548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.312064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No65c74.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2532149.8%160 W · 161 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No39c74.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.471,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.36,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.549363.5%313 W · 180 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes21c69.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.776835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c69.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked No73c68.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.192766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No67c65.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5453373.7%393 W · 140 L+36.8wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fad…242fbacked No77c64.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.632669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9850462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes35c62.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9138346.7%179 W · 204 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes23c61.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.262,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes22c61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.421,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No74c60.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211444.7%51 W · 63 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155018%9 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes51c58.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3920851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes40c56.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3912945.7%59 W · 70 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff70…78abbacked No39c51.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.481957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038c…b4e0backed No55c51.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.14062.5%25 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes35c51.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9615327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3426935.7%96 W · 173 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2272233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed Yes23c49.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.537467.4%252 W · 122 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No67c49.07$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.196864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x830b…c771backed Yes28c49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes32c48.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6612134.7%42 W · 79 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb884…19c1backed Yes26c46.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.817940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No74c45.36$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.821,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e58…93e0backed Yes25c44.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114231%13 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No75c43.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No30c43.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5238652.8%204 W · 182 L-25.5wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaba8…aeadbacked No72c42.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22190.5%19 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No68c41.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3116668.1%113 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No78c41.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.283,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c40.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.974,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No80c39.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1525564.7%165 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked No72c39.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.787844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes52c38.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.265,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c36.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.043,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No68c36.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8721352.6%112 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes55c33.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.814154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No76c33.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2658850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84e7…73c4backed No76c32.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.593315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.155026.9%148 W · 402 L-66.5wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.