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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No6c3,398$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.192,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No65c618.07$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.4582742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed No2c617.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c420.24$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.534,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No31c285.47$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.761421.8%134 W · 480 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No15c281.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.981,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c228.9$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.761,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373e…b868backed No28c220.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.267052.9%37 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No25c217.56$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.921,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes58c204.32$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.324052.5%21 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13219845.5%90 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes69c175.77$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2712,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes35c164.42$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8455942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes62c162.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1438346.7%179 W · 204 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c43…1608backed No65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003865.8%25 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes41c128.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.049712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes39c128$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.081,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No15c126.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0792145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes27c120.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.266835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No47c118$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4513861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c116$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.76,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No69c108.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5545059.1%266 W · 184 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No58c104.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.341,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No27c100.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.655747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0562539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9941927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes36c98.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4354738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes37c95.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7266834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes37c90$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.36560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No25c88.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.232114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes32c86.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes73c83.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5214887.8%130 W · 18 L+28.3wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No63c81.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5727944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes37c81.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3553548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.272233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes27c79.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.518236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked No19c78.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c77.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8812,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes39c75.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0111444.7%51 W · 63 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4514727.9%41 W · 106 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.852,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No42c64.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.262,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes78c64.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3527845.7%127 W · 151 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes34c64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.345930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes24c62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4212945.7%59 W · 70 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Yes76c61.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.57366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…568abacked Yes35c60.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No46c58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4250462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9f…c0ffbacked Yes39c57.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c56.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.999,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes36c56.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes29c56.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5948140.3%194 W · 287 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes36c55.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.051136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.315,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes35c54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0149363.5%313 W · 180 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c53.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.814,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes62c51.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.492,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16da…daa5backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc2…8d44backed No60c49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes32c46.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.84531.1%14 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c45.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.391,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.125,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes28c42.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.425238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a0…928ebacked Yes53c41.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No62c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5620736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.89652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes39c39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9214262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe88f…c4febacked No67c38.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c38.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.893,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No67c37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffcd…1666backed No67c36.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.463855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c35.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c35.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.435,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes30c34.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3118157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No58c30.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9257559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes76c30.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No63c30.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.985,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.210033%33 W · 67 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…a8f1backed Yes39c28.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…86f1backed No70c28.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4219437.1%72 W · 122 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec7…d145backed Yes42c26.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.216436%59 W · 105 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No74c23.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.46675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…15fcbacked No63c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No59c20.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0935864%229 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.258850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0aa…3259backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25058%29 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No64c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7924756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5239…b328backed No63c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No69c14.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1816668.1%113 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c14.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.