Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb3402c6a447d40c973c2724729e96d115be4b33eea86f3f2a415350ef00b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 434.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 39c | 307.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 201.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 168.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 144.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 33c | 127.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…0044backed Yes | 37c | 113.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 111.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 55c | 108.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 97.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 52c | 84.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 43c | 78.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 56c | 72.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 63.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 50c | 62.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 61.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 59.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 59.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 47c | 53.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 51c | 44.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 44.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e9…e017backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…13d7backed No | 57c | 42.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 44c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 40.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 37.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 34.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 33.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 33.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 33c | 30.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 58c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 47c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 43c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 46c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…a2d1backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.