Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Jacob Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc665670d402f67aa722b339f35f76d79ee87923426e51d5edf0e463ac5d80c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fearnleyof Griekspoor, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Fearnley | 31c | 3,469$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.42 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fearnley | 68c | 2,877$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Griekspoor | 69c | 2,136$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.83 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Griekspoor | 36c | 1,598$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Griekspoor | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.26 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Griekspoor | 21c | 1,061$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.49 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fearnley | 64c | 915.2$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.34 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Griekspoor | 56c | 892.36$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.83 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Griekspoor | 40c | 851.5$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.63 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Fearnley | 60c | 718.96$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.14 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fearnley | 55c | 718.02$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.09 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Fearnley | 61c | 623.88$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Griekspoor | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Fearnley | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fearnley | 33c | 487.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Griekspoor | 34c | 414.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed Fearnley | 72c | 368.91$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fearnley | 64c | 320$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Griekspoor | 57c | 277.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Griekspoor | 57c | 263.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Fearnley | 42c | 238$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Griekspoor | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Griekspoor | 67c | 214.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Griekspoor | 20c | 200.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Fearnley | 75c | 160.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Griekspoor | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Griekspoor | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Griekspoor | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Griekspoor | 51c | 133.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…876cbacked Fearnley | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Griekspoor | 30c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…446bbacked Griekspoor | 55c | 92.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Griekspoor | 25c | 80.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Griekspoor | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Fearnley | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Griekspoor | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…8849backed Griekspoor | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Griekspoor | 72c | 25.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…3045backed Griekspoor | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…1b0bbacked Griekspoor | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.