Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0040e9a1cd4e890801a404d3f7f3021783469d8472157b121e1bc8f15064599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Jayhawksof Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 7,253$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590.73 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Kansas State Wildcats | 49c | 6,095$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 523.02$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.26 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas State Wildcats | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 470$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 348.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 211.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kansas State Wildcats | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Kansas State Wildcats | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 115.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…6aa8backed Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 83.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 66.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Kansas State Wildcats | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…556abacked Kansas Jayhawks | 54c | 32.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Kansas State Wildcats | 50c | 20.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kansas State Wildcats | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State WildcatsKansas Jayhawks won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-3.5)Kansas Jayhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.