Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd007351c47a0be69314643da196851309061d0d10983f51d968dbae9cc78c3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,297$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 771.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 608.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 74c | 478.25$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 293.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 39c | 274.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 13c | 241$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.48 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 213.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 73c | 206.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 31c | 166.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 140.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 119.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 94.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 17c | 75.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 55.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 49.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 23.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fa1dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.