MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00ff541815b0d7e8dc0dd60048349069a19c424c564f41822f2590858f6ef30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 52c | 2,005$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.4 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 1,125$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 65c | 1,050$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.55 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 50c | 1,048$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.94 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,028$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 1,005$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 479.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 49c | 341$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 52c | 253$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 49c | 109.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 53c | 94.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 93.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 51c | 56.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 51c | 49.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Over | 51c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 38.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.