MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd025adce46fa6973a806bb2644d482761d84429fa58c0b3f5b1a43490834d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 3,213$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 3,188$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 770.43$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 603.6$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 449.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 401.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 304.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…b4b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 100.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 60.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.