Tennis · resolved market
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd01689da9a99c3f77ff0138fd766c84fc53e59019a2cb29322a2565a7c1cba2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alina Charaevaof Manon Leonard, Alina Charaeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Manon Leonard | 12c | 9,593$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.94 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Manon Leonard | 16c | 7,676$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.06 | 937 | 40.6%380 W · 557 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked Manon Leonard | 9c | 3,104$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Manon Leonard | 7c | 2,013$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Manon Leonard | 20c | 1,490$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.02 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Manon Leonard | 24c | 1,038$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Manon Leonard | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Manon Leonard | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Manon Leonard | 19c | 521.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 396.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Alina Charaeva | 76c | 381.58$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Alina Charaeva | 76c | 370.09$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Manon Leonard | 7c | 347$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Manon Leonard | 18c | 237.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Manon Leonard | 19c | 219$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Manon Leonard | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Manon Leonard | 20c | 161.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Manon Leonard | 13c | 139.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Manon Leonard | 15c | 138.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Alina Charaeva | 76c | 129.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Manon Leonard | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Manon Leonard | 15c | 113.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5997…5448backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Manon Leonard | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Manon Leonard | 12c | 97.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Manon Leonard | 20c | 94.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Alina Charaeva | 76c | 93.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Manon Leonard | 18c | 69.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.