Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd023c0f455192a7e1160eafe77cfbbb9c633cefde278e0f3d1d9b0de6700be12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maestrelliof Giustino, Maestrelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Giustino | 46c | 5,230$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Maestrelli | 54c | 5,015$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.51 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Giustino | 45c | 1,265$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.2 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Maestrelli | 60c | 905$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Giustino | 31c | 790.35$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maestrelli | 46c | 550.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.83 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Giustino | 40c | 495$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Giustino | 53c | 306.36$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Giustino | 41c | 259.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Giustino | 41c | 238.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Maestrelli | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Maestrelli | 59c | 197.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Maestrelli | 56c | 184$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Maestrelli | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Maestrelli | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Maestrelli | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Maestrelli | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Giustino | 38c | 124.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…4df8backed Maestrelli | 58c | 120.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…c545backed Maestrelli | 59c | 116.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Giustino | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Giustino | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Giustino | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Giustino | 61c | 90.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…deeebacked Giustino | 36c | 89.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…6190backed Maestrelli | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Maestrelli | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…5bf0backed Maestrelli | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Giustino | 46c | 79.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…1a88backed Maestrelli | 57c | 76.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Giustino | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…b16bbacked Maestrelli | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Maestrelli | 59c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Giustino | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Giustino | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…35fcbacked Maestrelli | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giustino | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Giustino | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…2ff9backed Giustino | 44c | 37.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Giustino | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Giustino | 50c | 24.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Maestrelli | 66c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrellithis page
- Giustino vs. Maestrelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Giustino vs MaestrelliMaestrelli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.