Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03002f27a41f3a5d9498bf8e76877ddec716e53e9b56bf4c2bec6dc7316f27c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 902.87$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 253.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 64c | 250.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 61c | 156.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 60c | 112.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 111.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 109.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 98.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 33c | 94.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 89.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 83.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…2e47backed No | 68c | 78.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 74.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 58.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 57.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 50.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 48.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 37.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…2199backed Yes | 42c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 28.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 26.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 56c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 47c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 57c | 17.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.