Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd032700b0de6bc4b4225553eeb7c94faeebdd1458b1e588ef543e02d3b720e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 45c | 574.1$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 47c | 397.92$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…0f0abacked Down | 65c | 321.62$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…0f03backed Down | 65c | 228$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 55c | 227.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Up | 31c | 215.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Up | 17c | 203.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…7deebacked Down | 60c | 199.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…2453backed Down | 53c | 196.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…65e8backed Down | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 47c | 175.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f92…1af9backed Up | 57c | 168.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…b235backed Down | 55c | 163.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…5716backed Down | 62c | 147.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 27c | 139.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…5acbbacked Down | 74c | 106$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 45c | 100.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…4367backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ad5bbacked Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…09f0backed Down | 65c | 97.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Down | 63c | 91.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…85f2backed Down | 53c | 90.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Down | 31c | 84.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Up | 59c | 81.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…cc6dbacked Down | 45c | 74.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…4f99backed Down | 64c | 54.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…26c0backed Down | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…f461backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 55c | 48.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d71…9085backed Down | 57c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…b0ecbacked Down | 69c | 40.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…c785backed Up | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…9330backed Up | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…19f9backed Up | 37c | 27.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…f2a5backed Up | 52c | 27.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 40c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7d…c3bcbacked Down | 70c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…d138backed Up | 55c | 20.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…cb06backed Down | 75c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.