Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd07f6cab22de5ebce966e6f14fae02cf610325db78393a0ab80a836fcdbed7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,064$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 630.97$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 614.2$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 432.47$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 58c | 371.57$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 35c | 367$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.45 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 365$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.82 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 294.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 20c | 235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 34c | 211$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 42c | 185.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.72 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 37c | 174.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 61c | 162.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 59c | 95.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 82.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 70.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 66c | 48.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 47c | 46.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 41c | 42.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 35c | 41.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 41.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 38c | 27.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 65c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: Nõmme Kalju FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC: Team to AdvanceShelbourne FC won
- Spread: Nõmme Kalju FC (-1.5)Shelbourne FC won
- Spread: Shelbourne FC (-1.5)Nõmme Kalju FC won
- Spread: Shelbourne FC (-2.5)Nõmme Kalju FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.