Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0828a94d38a558ea95149e3eb9acf7bed5f1c26d3d1f5bc27c41f4705fdca9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeab…c199backed No | 79c | 668.27$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 63c | 365.48$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 291$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 185.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 28c | 135.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 125.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 13c | 120.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 100.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 99.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 26c | 71.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 70.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 68.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 67.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 44c | 65.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 48c | 63.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 25c | 61.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 58.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 55.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 24c | 53.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 49.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 42.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 67c | 38.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 24.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked No | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.