Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd082caeb8be7e43f9ec9b5a601deeb3f92ffa2246d387679675c40f27c00c49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Fighting Illiniof Illinois Fighting Illini, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 446.25$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 362$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.78 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 258.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 196$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 147.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 43.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 42.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)this page
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Under won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.