Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc9be609bd606ebe6229e8bbaf41a2b6ae82e8bc55963f98f7480ccea546b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 51c | 22,483$11,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,040.38 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 21,973$11,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,345.32 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Over | 52c | 8,566$4,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,454.48 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 48c | 7,059$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.23 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 6,628$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.23 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 3,013$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.06 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 57c | 2,536$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.76 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 46c | 2,084$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.65 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 1,780$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.6 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 48c | 1,615$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.66 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 6c | 818$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 48c | 588.06$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.79 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 48c | 487.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 56c | 437.5$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 390.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 65c | 306.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 34c | 251$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Under | 48c | 218$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd9…83b4backed Under | 48c | 196$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…b1a1backed Over | 51c | 163.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Under | 65c | 91.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Over | 55c | 76.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 50c | 63.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Under | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 37c | 41.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Over | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6263…f8e1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5this page
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.