Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ed89242ae8a3cef0dae914f8a310d883d42dd79a9f34fa3a88ef793b78a995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Fighting Illiniof Indiana Hoosiers, Illinois Fighting Illini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 16,915$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.06 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 15,948$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.96 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 9,710$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.11 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…b03ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 0c | 6,396$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 6,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Indiana Hoosiers | 18c | 4,592$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.5 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 4,526$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.13 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 3,459$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.5 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Indiana Hoosiers | 20c | 3,294$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 2,977$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.73 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 2,864$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.14 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 2,744$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.5 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Indiana Hoosiers | 19c | 2,700$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 1,953$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.87 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 5c | 1,540$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Indiana Hoosiers | 10c | 1,406$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Indiana Hoosiers | 18c | 1,048$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers | 13c | 941.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 774$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…e6b7backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 547.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Hoosiers | 13c | 536.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Indiana Hoosiers | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 504.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 380$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 356.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 329.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 18c | 310.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 298.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 13c | 251.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 240.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Indiana Hoosiers | 10c | 212.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…ec0ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…9c78backed Indiana Hoosiers | 9c | 196.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Indiana Hoosiers | 21c | 170.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed Indiana Hoosiers | 11c | 167.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf32…5159backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 153.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 32.1%62 W · 131 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 133.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 125.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Indiana Hoosiers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Indiana Hoosiers | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9cf5backed Indiana Hoosiers | 18c | 89.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…ee29backed Indiana Hoosiers | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…3471backed Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 66.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 66.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Indiana Hoosiers | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 79c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illinithis page
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Under won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.