Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01822e0fd45637686b4a98dd5a99155172d77e363e88d2bac0c012a20852fabb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,099.98 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 10,658$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 49c | 6,029$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.82 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,710$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Under | 52c | 2,080$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.38 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 47c | 1,996$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.05 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Over | 52c | 1,183$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 1,104$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.7 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 47c | 410.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked Over | 49c | 204.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 52c | 187$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 154.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 113$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Over | 52c | 96.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Under | 53c | 71.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Over | 50c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 56c | 31.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 51c | 29.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…ac06backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5this page
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.