TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Illinois Fighting Illiniof Illinois Fighting Illini, Indiana Hoosiers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecfc…cd05backed Indiana Hoosiers52c5,718$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.611,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Illinois Fighting Illini49c5,000$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.9961652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Illinois Fighting Illini49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02027851.1%142 W · 136 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Indiana Hoosiers57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1401764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Indiana Hoosiers51c1,957$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00057248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini46c1,723$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.3812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Illinois Fighting Illini46c871.29$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.312,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Illinois Fighting Illini49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.337448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Illinois Fighting Illini45c700$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38555749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Illinois Fighting Illini49c645.64$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3119153.9%103 W · 88 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Indiana Hoosiers52c634.6$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9918245.1%82 W · 100 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Illinois Fighting Illini45c588.64$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.751471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Indiana Hoosiers55c578.64$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.2548855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Illinois Fighting Illini49c454.26$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.671,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Indiana Hoosiers55c452.53$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013350.4%67 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Indiana Hoosiers48c429.23$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0374649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers54c315.96$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.995,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Indiana Hoosiers48c265.38$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.385,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini52c265.38$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.386235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Indiana Hoosiers58c258.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Indiana Hoosiers47c252.87$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2848051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Indiana Hoosiers53c249.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.497042.9%30 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Indiana Hoosiers52c217.97$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3413842.8%59 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Indiana Hoosiers49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9831537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Illinois Fighting Illini48c200$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.61,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Illinois Fighting Illini46c184.38$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.43,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Illinois Fighting Illini44c181.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.642,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Indiana Hoosiers49c164.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807530.7%23 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Illinois Fighting Illini43c149.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4927048.1%130 W · 140 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Illinois Fighting Illini51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.651,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Indiana Hoosiers49c117.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.655160.8%31 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Illinois Fighting Illini43c111.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.621955.3%121 W · 98 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini45c108.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.921957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+38.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini45c106.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3784854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Illinois Fighting Illini47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535945.8%27 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Illinois Fighting Illini47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5326848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Illinois Fighting Illini50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Indiana Hoosiers51c98.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2423054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…bb1abacked Indiana Hoosiers57c83.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Illinois Fighting Illini49c81.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.621,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Illinois Fighting Illini47c58.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2134343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Illinois Fighting Illini54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5621152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Indiana Hoosiers54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8320248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Indiana Hoosiers47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Illinois Fighting Illini47c49.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0630746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Illinois Fighting Illini41c43.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6171655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Illinois Fighting Illini54c37.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1932652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini46c36.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.751,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini52c29.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1113561.5%83 W · 52 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Illinois Fighting Illini41c29.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.381,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Indiana Hoosiers55c21.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9891848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…0bb0backed Illinois Fighting Illini52c21.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.333158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02fa…547ebacked Indiana Hoosiers50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Indiana Hoosiers51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211354.9%62 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.