Us Politics · resolved market
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08318327c3e9e9c21841272dfee84da6de9e0b75a41d56a47aca2b34e1c588d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 10c | 13,248$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.81 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 10c | 6,879$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.26 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 11c | 4,750$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ffdcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,641$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 12c | 4,094$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.12 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 14c | 2,597$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 1,176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 13c | 990$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 12c | 924.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 20c | 859.8$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 6c | 806.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 571.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 347$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…f657backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed Yes | 15c | 195.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Yes | 14c | 174.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…a4d7backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…5499backed Yes | 17c | 90.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…72aebacked Yes | 16c | 70.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.