Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open, Qualification: Murphy Cassone vs Francesco Maestrelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a53273560d699efc51dd2f8fe1dd6658e9b51a2dd47c91c51525c4804a1c66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murphy Cassoneof Murphy Cassone, Francesco Maestrelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,359 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Francesco Maestrelli | 30c | 8,077$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.07 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Murphy Cassone | 62c | 5,574$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.1 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Murphy Cassone | 72c | 4,281$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.77 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 46c | 3,819$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.68 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Murphy Cassone | 67c | 2,000$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.28 | 943 | 55.7%525 W · 418 L | +22.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Francesco Maestrelli | 12c | 1,054$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 597 | 21.8%130 W · 467 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Francesco Maestrelli | 24c | 1,054$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Francesco Maestrelli | 57c | 884.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Murphy Cassone | 61c | 801.38$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.25 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Francesco Maestrelli | 66c | 756.43$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 25c | 697.1$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Francesco Maestrelli | 18c | 605.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 521 | 33%172 W · 349 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Francesco Maestrelli | 60c | 497.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Murphy Cassone | 72c | 434.56$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 20c | 362$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Francesco Maestrelli | 57c | 338.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Francesco Maestrelli | 46c | 326.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Murphy Cassone | 47c | 323.21$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 681 | 39.1%266 W · 415 L | -30.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Francesco Maestrelli | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed Francesco Maestrelli | 65c | 210$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 735 | 58.6%431 W · 304 L | -26.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Francesco Maestrelli | 67c | 187.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Murphy Cassone | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,125 | 42.8%482 W · 643 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Murphy Cassone | 33c | 162.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Murphy Cassone | 39c | 136.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Francesco Maestrelli | 61c | 131.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Murphy Cassone | 60c | 127.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 50c | 124.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Murphy Cassone | 74c | 120.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 57c | 88.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Francesco Maestrelli | 61c | 87.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Murphy Cassone | 72c | 82.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Francesco Maestrelli | 65c | 77.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Murphy Cassone | 35c | 65.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked Murphy Cassone | 64c | 63.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Francesco Maestrelli | 59c | 48.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Murphy Cassone | 49c | 45.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Murphy Cassone | 45c | 44.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Murphy Cassone | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed Murphy Cassone | 73c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Francesco Maestrelli | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Francesco Maestrelli | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Murphy Cassone | 64c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Francesco Maestrelli | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Murphy Cassone | 73c | 29.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 107 | 65.4%70 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…644abacked Murphy Cassone | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 161 | 75.2%121 W · 40 L | +20.4wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Francesco Maestrelli | 66c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Murphy Cassone | 64c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…72efbacked Murphy Cassone | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 387 | 54.3%210 W · 177 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…ffa1backed Murphy Cassone | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…985ebacked Murphy Cassone | 65c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Francesco Maestrelli | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…203ebacked Murphy Cassone | 73c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Francesco Maestrelli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.