MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ca125b90a6cdb0d7e97e3a23e139d68b05459989a633fb4047f6df0898d04b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.98 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,185$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.79 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 58c | 974.8$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.42 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 46c | 800.5$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.27 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 55c | 637$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.35 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 55c | 354.44$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Over | 45c | 284.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Over | 46c | 189.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 164.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 124.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 116.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 102.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…8b81backed Over | 45c | 83.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 43c | 53.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 44c | 46.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked Over | 47c | 37.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 70c | 34.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 54c | 34.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 45c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 56c | 25.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 25.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 45c | 25.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 45c | 24.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. AthleticsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-9.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.