MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41b591f4420a50d1ad62b21949c46668381998885b4d1d52e259ad0e71a8d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 50c | 30,597$15,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,298.67 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 30,296$15,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,147.93 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…4689backed Under | 50c | 16,084$8,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,042.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 50c | 14,140$7,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,070 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,997$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.78 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 3,783$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.5 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 49c | 3,655$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.03 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 521.4$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.54 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 480.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.37 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 52c | 390.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 387$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 268.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 203.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 54c | 183.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 47c | 182.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 54c | 171.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 54c | 167.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 54c | 167.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 156.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4b…b4ebbacked Over | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 50c | 148.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Over | 54c | 144.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 135.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 54c | 135.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 54c | 111.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff5cbacked Under | 48c | 107.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 54c | 90.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 86.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 52c | 76.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 49c | 51.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 50.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 45.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 51c | 42.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…24eebacked Under | 50c | 39.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 49c | 39.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 51c | 36.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 47c | 36.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Over | 51c | 34.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 60c | 34.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 49c | 33.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Over | 67c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 28.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 51c | 24.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 54c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 68c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. AthleticsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-9.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.