CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ce6b1899ace2c7f9880b9c67d5a36aed658e435d14b96e2b1f5999590c7563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemigaof Nemiga, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 1c | 1,583$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…a735backed Ursa | 34c | 589.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 244 | 29.5%72 W · 172 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Nemiga | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 298 | 51.3%153 W · 145 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 34c | 498.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Ursa | 25c | 455.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nemiga | 67c | 407.29$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116e…f26fbacked Ursa | 14c | 359.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 12c | 341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Nemiga | 66c | 302.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Ursa | 27c | 301.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Ursa | 37c | 256.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Ursa | 15c | 251$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Ursa | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…1e5cbacked Nemiga | 69c | 218.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed Ursa | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Nemiga | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Ursa | 32c | 192$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 483 | 19%92 W · 391 L | -65.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Nemiga | 66c | 184.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Ursa | 31c | 160.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga | 73c | 159.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Nemiga | 67c | 150.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Ursa | 11c | 127.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 219 | 39.7%87 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Ursa | 32c | 127.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Nemiga | 65c | 116.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Ursa | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Ursa | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Nemiga | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Nemiga | 68c | 97.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 30c | 92.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ursa | 34c | 82.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ursa | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Nemiga | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nemiga | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Ursa | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed Nemiga | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Nemiga | 75c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Nemiga | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Nemiga | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Nemiga | 75c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Nemiga | 66c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 157 | 70.1%110 W · 47 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerNemiga won
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerNemiga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.