Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Dimitrov (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd100b8921088ef959e86bde61ce7ec8739bf2f4063a5b9dfbcade9fc7776a9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Fokina, Dimitrov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Fokina | 49c | 1,131$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.3 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Dimitrov | 51c | 332.12$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Dimitrov | 43c | 309.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Dimitrov | 61c | 215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Dimitrov | 46c | 212$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Fokina | 44c | 201.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fokina | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Dimitrov | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Dimitrov | 41c | 128.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7d3dbacked Dimitrov | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Dimitrov | 55c | 97.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Fokina | 47c | 89.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…32e0backed Fokina | 45c | 72.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86b…bd44backed Fokina | 77c | 68.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dimitrov | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Dimitrov | 56c | 58.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 599 | 41.1%246 W · 353 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Dimitrov | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Dimitrov | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Fokina | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Fokina | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 310 | 53.2%165 W · 145 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Dimitrov | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Fokina | 49c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fokina | 57c | 21.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fokina | 73c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Dimitrov | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Dimitrov | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…cdcbbacked Dimitrov | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Dimitrov (+1.5)this page
- Dimitrov vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won
- Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs FokinaFokina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.