Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1281f9eb69bea4c4fc445f71d66cc2e86823192198db317621df382d0300ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 567.95$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 58c | 514.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 338.02$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed No | 18c | 216.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked No | 20c | 91.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 54c | 90.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 38c | 67.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 61c | 66.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 65c | 45.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked No | 39c | 37.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…dfe9backed Yes | 42c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.