Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14452c0ee210d0860be73503f25449ce74d007200dedb6a3201e83aa3928fd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 2,977$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 57c | 1,058$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 914.64$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 39c | 771.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 558.26$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.21 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 554.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.91 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 18c | 550.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.85 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 31c | 548.37$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.72 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 18c | 452.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.68 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 35c | 425.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 72c | 417.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Under | 9c | 397.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Under | 4c | 370.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed Over | 35c | 265.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 238.24$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 208.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 62c | 174.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 151.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 68c | 125.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 50c | 111.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 99.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 38c | 96.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 15c | 95.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 79c | 91.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed Under | 21c | 83.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…2a65backed Over | 64c | 78.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Under | 40c | 72.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 33c | 67.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 52c | 55.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 39c | 47.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 43.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…bc7bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 39c | 31.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…9c5abacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 79c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 77c | 14.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.