Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7431fbf519d0d6c894eb0f45b0b75ff01a36c06d6ff246e4c58aee378dd6b0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 62c | 2,590$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.85 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 2,523$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 40c | 823.13$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 20c | 687.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 57c | 511.36$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 21c | 470.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 433.49$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…61cbbacked Under | 75c | 387.94$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 299.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 295$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 75c | 240.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 161.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 17c | 116.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 112.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d234backed Under | 73c | 105.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…688ebacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Over | 40c | 40.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 79c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 73c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.