Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x045a4fd63455ac6d4bf242efcefe6a9b9ec3bd97e6ae497aa7dcaccb27912db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 45c | 9,940$4,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.11 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 8,102$3,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,628.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 45c | 6,000$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 4,712$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.53 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 2,606$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.21 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,993$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 46c | 1,857$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.1 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 39c | 1,234$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 52c | 1,005$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.28 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 773.96$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 773.11$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.51 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 54c | 721.56$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 61c | 653.05$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 66c | 536.25$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.16 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 17c | 502.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 38c | 497.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.54 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 32c | 400$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 316.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 45c | 220.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…5ddabacked Over | 50c | 209.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 182.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 144.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…c365backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 43c | 100.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 38c | 96.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 39c | 95.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Under | 67c | 95.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Under | 63c | 92.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 79.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Under | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 40c | 73.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Under | 27c | 51.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Under | 39c | 51.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 50c | 46.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 44.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Over | 45c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…4b94backed Over | 57c | 33.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 51c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 40c | 31.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…b7aebacked Under | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 58c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.