Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Kalmychata (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1356f8082a3258ff65e37582ee997b70afedc8d8d2c6b301b23a534ff90c7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof AVULUS, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f47…d0a3backed AVULUS | 5c | 3,359$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Kalmychata | 73c | 1,779$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 32c | 1,754$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.14 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 4c | 1,147$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed AVULUS | 20c | 1,021$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked Kalmychata | 80c | 833.23$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked AVULUS | 27c | 562.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked AVULUS | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kalmychata | 72c | 453.83$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…24f2backed Kalmychata | 64c | 310.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked AVULUS | 20c | 280.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Kalmychata | 64c | 232.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…ffb2backed Kalmychata | 65c | 224.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed AVULUS | 41c | 210$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked AVULUS | 37c | 200.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…ed24backed AVULUS | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Kalmychata | 62c | 183.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed AVULUS | 37c | 163$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Kalmychata | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Kalmychata | 62c | 154.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Kalmychata | 65c | 154.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed AVULUS | 32c | 153.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata | 66c | 147.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Kalmychata | 70c | 143.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…9fb7backed AVULUS | 9c | 119.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kalmychata | 68c | 105.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…8052backed Kalmychata | 62c | 102.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked AVULUS | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked AVULUS | 38c | 83.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed AVULUS | 30c | 82.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Kalmychata | 60c | 81.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Kalmychata | 64c | 80.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked AVULUS | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae44…b7fbbacked AVULUS | 27c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Kalmychata | 62c | 71.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Kalmychata | 59c | 68.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Kalmychata | 61c | 65.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…7ec5backed AVULUS | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…c5dfbacked AVULUS | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked AVULUS | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…0ec5backed Kalmychata | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Kalmychata | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…1f6ebacked Kalmychata | 60c | 45.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Kalmychata | 74c | 42.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Kalmychata | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…40cbbacked AVULUS | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed AVULUS | 40c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…7bdfbacked Kalmychata | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…420ebacked AVULUS | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Kalmychata | 69c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Kalmychata | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Kalmychata | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Kalmychata (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Kalmychata - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.