NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Jets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd148ea0cbd49444e2b496db8499ca9c40ab18d0183a984bfbd98bdfab14ec623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Over | 57c | 36,655$21,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,636.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 43c | 23,655$10,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,171.65 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 10,942$5,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,160.88 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 42c | 3,062$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.09 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 42c | 667$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Under | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 42c | 357$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Under | 47c | 136.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 42c | 71.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 31.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Jets: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. JetsJets won
- Capitals vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.