Tennis · resolved market
Newport: Katie Volynets vs Ariana Arseneault
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15f54918d0e01c7575b933b0f262853c8179a447247467a8f76ccb3b2100c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Katie Volynetsof Katie Volynets, Ariana Arseneault
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ariana Arseneault | 24c | 9,248$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.53 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ariana Arseneault | 13c | 4,148$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.37 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 3,926$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Ariana Arseneault | 14c | 1,547$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Ariana Arseneault | 2c | 1,351$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,404 | 42.8%601 W · 803 L | -31.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked Ariana Arseneault | 8c | 1,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Katie Volynets | 80c | 1,213$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.65 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…ed45backed Ariana Arseneault | 2c | 1,080$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 1,071$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ariana Arseneault | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Katie Volynets | 75c | 650.47$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5850…fdd9backed Ariana Arseneault | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Ariana Arseneault | 18c | 523.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…d0b6backed Ariana Arseneault | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Katie Volynets | 78c | 387.83$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 330 | 43.9%145 W · 185 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ariana Arseneault | 22c | 384$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Ariana Arseneault | 34c | 338.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 208.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…c58ebacked Ariana Arseneault | 11c | 188.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Ariana Arseneault | 21c | 152.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Katie Volynets | 70c | 142.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,131 | 45.4%514 W · 617 L | -34.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Katie Volynets | 79c | 134.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3bbebacked Ariana Arseneault | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Ariana Arseneault | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…7f0fbacked Ariana Arseneault | 14c | 96.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…2520backed Katie Volynets | 74c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Ariana Arseneault | 21c | 85.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Ariana Arseneault | 32c | 78.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Katie Volynets | 67c | 77.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Ariana Arseneault | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 716 | 21.1%151 W · 565 L | -29.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Katie Volynets | 73c | 72.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed Ariana Arseneault | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 372 | 55.6%207 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ariana Arseneault | 21c | 59.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Ariana Arseneault | 27c | 56.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…210cbacked Katie Volynets | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Ariana Arseneault | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ariana Arseneault | 21c | 46.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed Ariana Arseneault | 26c | 41.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Katie Volynets | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…7acdbacked Katie Volynets | 69c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Katie Volynets | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,120 | 56.5%633 W · 487 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Katie Volynets | 71c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newport: Katie Volynets vs Ariana Arseneaultthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Volynets vs ArseneaultArseneault won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.