TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rutgers Scarlet Knightsof Michigan State Spartans, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e82…7670backed Michigan State Spartans48c4,486$2,138 inLost-$2,13818650%93 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights52c2,481$1,280 inWon+$1,201.2112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights53c2,472$1,310 inWon+$1,162.0274649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Michigan State Spartans48c625$300 inLost-$3001,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights53c433.96$230 inWon+$203.9679448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e0…b08ebacked Michigan State Spartans45c220$99 inLost-$991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans50c121.21$60 inLost-$60.354,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Michigan State Spartans47c56.21$26 inLost-$26.4242751.8%221 W · 206 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights53c56.21$30 inWon+$26.427234.7%25 W · 47 L-9.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights53c50$27 inWon+$23.51,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights53c43.64$23 inWon+$20.5158345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Michigan State Spartans48c31.25$15 inLost-$1566831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.