Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3415d8a36548d69068227553d9de90cfd3601b6fbf45e08ff353945ea766cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rutgers Scarlet Knightsof Michigan State Spartans, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 52c | 8,674$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.51 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 6,767$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.83 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 5,885$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.15 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 4,175$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.96 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 3,923$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.13 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 51c | 3,200$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.94 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 46c | 2,989$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 53c | 2,066$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.06 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,580$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.17 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 1,222$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 1,150$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.39 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 1,124$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.65 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…7f31backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 976.19$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 700$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 47c | 693.19$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.31 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 518.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 249.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…b08ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 44c | 229.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 218$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 199.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Michigan State Spartans | 40c | 155.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Michigan State Spartans | 35c | 131.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 109.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 53c | 99.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 76.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 71.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 57.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 56.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 49.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 48.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…8a64backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Michigan State Spartans | 28c | 39.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 31.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…b163backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 54c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 20.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…925cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-14.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet KnightsMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: O/U 135.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: O/U 136.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: O/U 137.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: O/U 138.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-13.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-15.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.