TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: O/U 136.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,812 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617b…a499backed Over53c10,166$5,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,751.6924451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c10,001$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.8912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over50c4,742$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,37141752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c921.82$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.615,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Under48c700$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3362138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Under46c461.16$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.529235.9%33 W · 59 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under48c438.8$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.284,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under50c241.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7558345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Under45c129$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.058055%44 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c123.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.384,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Under43c121$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.036750.7%34 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under50c95.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.671,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Under55c90.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Under43c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.77244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Under49c43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.076743.3%29 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2078052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.634952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Over58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4821252.4%111 W · 101 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Over57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.94456.8%25 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Under49c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.725844.8%26 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14cd…1716backed Over57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.613868.4%26 W · 12 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Over57c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.892965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Over57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.462365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.463360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2348…9d10backed Over57c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.173053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…148bbacked Over57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.741471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Over57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.743663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.