Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd164ecd9db7e39b641eef91b2d974d061b4f0405607c87d1a2713c5dbec16586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22f7…b205backed No | 0c | 11,742$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…4076backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,549$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 2c | 1,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 264.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 55c | 218.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 63c | 206.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 168.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 48c | 136.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 122.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 74c | 93.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 76c | 93.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 21c | 89.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 73c | 82.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked No | 50c | 80.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 75c | 74.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed No | 29c | 64.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 64.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 47c | 47.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked No | 32c | 46.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 57c | 43.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 36.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6679…6985backed Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 75c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.