South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16929acdef16e23e9a9f04eda3ef7121f4d29b6c9851c5e546c6e0011af7715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 3c | 2,461$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 1,388$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.41 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 1,323$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.35 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,250$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.99 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625d…e828backed Yes | 34c | 629.41$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 419.93$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.15 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 28c | 305.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 18c | 144.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Yes | 33c | 71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…aeaabacked Yes | 34c | 36.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 54c | 32.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c6…2adabacked No | 68c | 29.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-01-27?No won
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-01-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.