Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16f890ccd1c876d5b4effd91ffb0f98e6f430fd273c244d93bdcba602717c57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 46c | 548.03$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.34 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 62c | 458.86$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.4 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 11c | 349.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.99 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 261.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 135.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 38c | 130.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 126.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 125.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 99.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 96.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 37c | 95.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 83.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 76.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 70c | 74.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 76c | 72.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 71.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 19c | 64.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 62.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 62.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 20c | 59.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 50.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 41.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 36.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 52c | 31.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 62c | 31.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 26.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 17.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.