Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b7d400211d7cea2644e30c90a616614deed0caa9b2c19b7e1914d67a77a9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 47c | 1,035$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.05 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 402.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 51c | 395.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 280.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 245.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 220.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 49c | 212.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 41c | 133.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 118.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 113.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 112.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 111.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 101.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 89.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 75.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 75.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 78c | 64.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 59.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 50c | 56.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 53.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 67c | 51.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 47.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 47.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 42c | 43.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 42.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 41.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 68c | 41.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked Yes | 74c | 40.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 39.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 33.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 68c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 64c | 29.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 46c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.