Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1db1b6e1c4dba346502a5be4182bf8a0b61ae5dd11f653e53f4e63c76841852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,101 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 1,267$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 15c | 1,246$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…605ebacked Over | 16c | 821$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 15c | 272.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 16c | 191.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 184.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 14c | 178.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 14c | 178.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 14c | 77.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 15c | 67.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 26c | 46.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…62bfbacked Under | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.